Dynamic Analyses for Passenger Volume of Domestic Airline and High Speed Rail

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler’s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption. Keywords—forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price